[By Merlin Lessler]
Edward Learner, one of the foremost economists of our time, died in February. But his legacy is that he was frustrated by fellow economists who didn’t state that their forecasts (predictions) were, in reality, a best guess; it was the misuse of fragile data. He accused them of a lack of humility and misuse of data because they never said, “Bottom line: this is my best guess of what is going to happen.”
Many professions suffer that same lack of humility. The scientific community at large would be better served if they heeded his wise counsel. They, too, fail to even hint that their study results are the best guess. It’s often presented to the public as fact. And then defended when “we dummies” question their conclusions: “It’s science, you moron!”
They know their conclusions are not rock solid and are subject to peer review, which is the “Scientific Method.” It is a method that has been in play for centuries and worked well. Otherwise, we’d still believe the world is flat and that the sun orbits around the earth.
The media, especially television media, present every new “scientific” study as fact. Coffee is bad for you; coffee is good for you. Drink diet soda; diet soda is bad for you. They are like Henny Penny as they rush to tell us of a new danger. An acorn fell on her head and she ran around the barnyard yelling, “The sky is falling.”
Weather reporters have acorns falling on their heads, too. They have transformed typical weather into DANGEROUS weather: Dangerous Cold – Dangerous Wind – Dangerous Snow Bombs. The human species has survived this weather for hundreds of thousands of years. A little humility would serve the weather people well, especially when they plot out a long-range forecast: “Next winter will be a cold one.” – “Expect a busy hurricane season this fall.”
Us old coots have been burned enough times by “scientific fact” and forecasts of all varieties; we’ve learned to be skeptical. We add “best guess” when we hear a prediction or warning. Maybe the predicting community should learn to wink, and then do so when they make a claim. On the other hand, anything you hear from an old coot can be taken as absolute fact. Wink, wink!
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