Approval ratings may determine outcome of Tuesday’s Midterm Elections

We have all witnessed the wave of political ads over the last few months, with politicians vying to be your next elected representative. While there are several uncontested elected positions to be filled in Tioga County, N.Y., such as the Tioga County Judge seat and several Council Seats, the most watched in the upcoming election is the gubernatorial race where Lee Zeldin, a Republican that is gaining traction with voters around the state, is challenging current Governor Kathy Hochul. 

And with only 17% of Americans polled being satisfied with the way things are going in America, according to a recent Gallup Poll, this low number could greatly affect the outcome of these midterm elections.

According to Gallup, the political peril of a party led by an unpopular president is apparent in the fact that the incumbent president’s party has lost seats in every midterm election when his approval rating has been below 50%. Additionally, seat losses in the House of Representatives for unpopular presidents’ parties have averaged 37 since 1946.

What does that mean for this midterm election? According to most polls, the approval numbers do offer an indication of the number of seats that might be gained or lost in a president’s party.

For example, according to a Gallup Poll, President Obama’s approval rating was at 45% in 2010, a low number in comparison to President Clinton’s 66% approval rating in 1998, or that of George W. Bush I in 2002, which was at 63%. With a 45% approval rating for President Obama that year going into the midterm elections, 63 seats were lost. President Biden’s approval rating is currently at 40% going into the Nov. 8 election.

These are all indicators, but the real focus, at least for New Yorkers, is the gubernatorial race, with Lee Zeldin still trailing in the polls, but closing in as the election nears.

In an Oct. 25 debate with Hochul, Zeldin argued about public safety, gun laws, and abortion. Zeldin and Hochul also debated about the numbers of undocumented immigrants that are being bused into New York City, and the handling of the situation.

Hochul challenged Zeldin on his stance on hydro-fracking and accused him of supporting the Jan. 6 attacks on the Capitol Building. Politics, in general, in a nation that is struggling to find common ground on several key issues. Guns, abortion, crime and inflation were the focus of this debate.

The Nov. 8 midterm election will be pivotal, in that it will decide the balance of party power, and with current polls pointing to a loss of seats for the Democratic Party. But time will tell here as much of the polling has a measure of error, as well as the closeness of several of the current races.

Early voting began at the end of last month and will end on Sunday. Polls will be open on Nov. 8 from 6 a.m. to 9 p.m. You can find your polling place at voterlookup.elections.ny.gov. You can find sample ballots at www.tiogacountyny.com/media/11fpzxf4/ge22-sample-ballots.pdf.

Election results will be posted once all of the precincts have reported. You can find more information by visiting www.tiogacountyny.com/departments/board-of-elections/, or by phoning them at (607) 687-8261 or via email to VoteTioga@co.tioga.ny.us.