[By Merlin Lessler]<\/p>\n
Edward Learner, one of the foremost economists of our time, died in February. But his legacy is that he was frustrated by fellow economists who didn\u2019t state that their forecasts (predictions) were, in reality, a best guess; it was the misuse of fragile data. He accused them of a lack of humility and misuse of data because they never said, \u201cBottom line: this is my best guess of what is going to happen.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n Many professions suffer that same lack of humility. The scientific community at large would be better served if they heeded his wise counsel. They, too, fail to even hint that their study results are the best guess. It\u2019s often presented to the public as fact. And then defended when \u201cwe dummies\u201d question their conclusions: \u201cIt\u2019s science, you moron!\u201d<\/p>\n They know their conclusions are not rock solid and are subject to peer review, which is the \u201cScientific Method.\u201d It is a method that has been in play for centuries and worked well. Otherwise, we\u2019d still believe the world is flat and that the sun orbits around the earth. <\/span><\/p>\n The media, especially television media, present every new \u201cscientific\u201d study as fact. Coffee is bad for you; coffee is good for you. Drink diet soda; diet soda is bad for you. They are like Henny Penny as they rush to tell us of a new danger. An acorn fell on her head and she ran around the barnyard yelling, \u201cThe sky is falling.\u201d <\/span><\/p>\n